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Silicon material price
This month's new silicon material supply is expected to be 64-65 GW/month, which is expected to decrease by 13-15% month-on-month, and the decline is further widened. It is expected that the utilization capacity of the silicon material link will remain sluggish and difficult in the third quarter. The main reason for the widening decline this month is that some TOP5 companies have begun to increase their production cuts. In addition, second- and third-tier companies, including new entrants, have reduced production or overhauled to varying degrees. Although the scale of production cuts by some leading companies is still unclear, due to their large market influence and high output weight, it is indeed one of the important potential impacts that cannot be ignored in the third quarter. The operating level of overseas silicon material companies has remained stable for the time being, but subsequent changes need to be observed. It is expected that there will be potential motivations and possibilities for overhaul and reduced output.
The market will open in the second half of the year, and the price range of silicon materials will continue to bottom out in the bottom range. In the short term, the mainstream price of silicon materials, that is, the market price represented by the leading enterprises, is expected to remain in the range of 37-41 yuan per kilogram. The price range threshold of second- and third-tier enterprises, including new entrants, may be slightly wider, but the price lower limit has basically been narrowed, and there is not much room for further exploration; in addition, the additional conditions and quantity requirements for pulling goods in the low-price range will also be more direct, and the difficulty of "exchanging quantity for price" in the price bottom range will obviously increase. The overall price level of domestic granular silicon is expected to be difficult to maintain in the bottom range of 35-37 yuan per kilogram, and the momentum for continued decline will gradually disappear.
In terms of inventory, the overall inventory level of the market has slowed down in this period, which is mainly directly related to the production cuts and active destocking since June. Because of the downstream silicon material demand, there has been no significant demand growth in the near future, but at the same time, the inventory distribution is also quietly changing.
Silicon wafer prices
Recently, the price trends of silicon wafers by specifications have gradually diverged. Due to the low-price clearance of enterprises in the early stage and the rapid destocking, the current inventory scale is also affected by the dilution of subdivided specifications. The specifications of 182 and 183N silicon wafers have begun to show signs of tension. Recently, manufacturers have also negotiated price increases for this specification. The company's quotation has been adjusted from RMB 1.1 per piece to RMB 1.12 per piece. As for the large-size 210RN series, it is relatively abundant, and manufacturers have begun to consider the possibility of shifting to focus on small-size production.
This week, the price of silicon wafers remained unchanged. Among P-type silicon wafers, the transaction prices of M10 and G12 sizes fell between RMB 1.25 and 1.7 per piece. The transaction prices of N-type silicon wafers M10, G12, and G12R sizes fell between RMB 1.1, 1.6-1.65, and 1.35 per piece.
Looking ahead, the tentative price increase for 183N silicon wafers by manufacturers this week has not been accepted in large quantities, and at the same time, when the price of battery cells is still loosening and falling, it is expected that the acceptance of price increases by battery manufacturers will still be difficult to popularize. Nevertheless, it is necessary to pay attention to the purchasing needs of different companies and the price increase order of suppliers to customers. It is not ruled out that there will be a chance that manufacturers will accept price increases in the future.
Battery cell price
In terms of production scheduling, as of the beginning of July, some battery manufacturers still have not yet finalized their production plans. Most companies reported that the production plan of large-size (210RN/210N) is still waiting for the market trend. In the current process of rapid price decline of large-size products, some companies have begun to suspend the production of this size and clear the inventory in hand in advance. According to statistics at the beginning of the month, the production schedule of the battery segment in July remained at about 56-57 GW, which is in sharp contrast with the component end. It is expected that the production schedule of each company in the middle of the month will still be adjusted and revised depending on the market trend.
Prices remained stable this week, among which 183N battery cells are still falling. The P-type M10 and G12 sizes remain at RMB 0.29-0.3 per watt. In terms of N-type cells, the average price of M10 TOPCon cells also remains at RMB 0.28-0.9 per watt, and the low price even falls below RMB 0.28 per watt. As for G12R and G12 TOPCon cells, the current price has dropped to RMB 0.29-0.3 per watt.
Looking ahead, as battery manufacturers continued to clear inventory at the end of last month, inventory levels have remained stable for the time being. The rapid decline in 210R and 210N battery prices has also led some manufacturers to reduce or even stop production on this production line to alleviate losses. In addition, many companies have also reported that the continued decline in M10 TOPCon cell prices has affected manufacturers' willingness to produce. If prices still cannot stabilize, the reduction in production will increase, and corporate operations will face challenges.
Module price
This week, the price of TOPCon modules is about RMB 0.76-0.90. This week, it follows the project price adjustment to RMB 0.82-0.84. After the price adjustment of some centralized projects, the overall price has dropped to around RMB 0.76-0.8. Some orders are facing performance risks. First-tier manufacturers still hope to maintain the price in the range of around RMB 0.8. However, with weak demand, the spot price of mid- and late-stage manufacturers has also begun to approach RMB 0.78, and even some have dropped to RMB 0.76-0.77. Low-price orders and rapid price drops of inefficient products continue to disrupt the market rhythm, and the downward trend has not stopped.
The price range of 182 PERC double-glass modules is about RMB 0.72-0.85 per watt. Domestic projects have decreased significantly, and prices have gradually fallen below RMB 0.8. There are not many projects delivered for HJT components recently, and the price is about RMB 0.93-1.05 per watt. The average price is close to the RMB 1 range and is moving towards the price of RMB 0.96-1. The price of large projects can also be seen below RMB 1. The price of HJT low-efficiency products can also be seen at RMB 0.85-0.88, but non-mainstream efficiencies are therefore excluded from price collection.
In the overseas market, orders in July also began to gradually follow the price decline trend. The regional differentiation of TOPCon prices is obvious. The price in the Asia-Pacific region is about 0.1-0.105 US dollars, and the prices in Europe and Australia are still 0.085-0.115 euros and 0.105-0.13 US dollars respectively; the price in the Brazilian market is about 0.085-0.12 US dollars, and the price in the Middle East market continues to drop to the range of 0.09-0.12 US dollars. The average price of large projects is close to 0.1 US dollars; Latin America is 0.09-0.11 US dollars. The execution price of PERC is about 0.09-0.10 US dollars per watt. The HJT part is about 0.12-0.14 US dollars per watt.
As the market opens up in the second half of the year, the chances of a rebound in component prices are still small. With the impact of demand shrinking in July and August and manufacturers scrambling for orders, especially in the middle and late stages, manufacturers may be able to offer lower component prices by controlling material procurement. It is expected that prices will still have a slight downward trend, but the lower limit will be anchored at the cost line, so the room for downward exploration is very limited.
Price Description
1、InfoLink’s public price time range is mainly the price range of the contracts being executed and newly signed from Thursday of the previous week to Wednesday of this week.
2、The spot price mainly refers to the information of more than 100 manufacturers. The most frequently traded “mode” data in the market is mainly used as the public price (not the weighted average), and it is adjusted as appropriate according to the actual market situation.
3、The US dollar price of polysilicon mainly reflects the US dollar price range corresponding to “non-Chinese origin” polysilicon, not the RMB price conversion.
4、The US dollar price of battery cells is high, and the corresponding prices of PERC/TOPCon M10 size battery cells are mainly based on the “Southeast Asian origin” battery cell prices.
5、For the component link, the RMB price is the quotation for domestic demand in China, and the average price is mainly based on the ex-factory price delivered that week (excluding inland transportation costs). The statistics mainly include distributed and centralized projects delivered during the current period. The high and low prices reflect the prices of second-tier manufacturers or some early projects based on the market conditions. The USD price is the overseas price in non-Chinese regions, and is quoted on an FOB basis excluding tariffs, not converted into RMB prices.
