The photovoltaic industry is fluctuating. What will be the trend in the second half of the year?

In the first half of 2024, the photovoltaic industry has experienced a relatively difficult period. The market has significantly cooled down. Many companies are in deep losses. The shadow of overcapacity has shrouded the entire industry. It is not surprising that some companies in the photovoltaic sector have pre-announced losses in their half-year results. . Longi Green Energy expects a loss of 4.8 billion to 5.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, Tongwei Co., Ltd. expects to achieve a loss of about 3 billion to 3.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, and TCL Central expects a net profit of -2.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2024. to -3.2 billion yuan. In addition, companies in the industry chain including JA Solar Technology, Jingyuntong, Aixu Technology, etc. also suffered losses. Overall, intensified competition in the photovoltaic market and falling product prices have become the main reasons for the losses of many companies.

With the large-scale implementation of past production expansion plans and the slowdown in global demand growth, most manufacturing companies from silicon materials to components have found it difficult to maintain profitability. So what will be the trend of the photovoltaic industry chain in the second half of the year?

Under today's severe market conditions, the price trend in the second half of the year will largely depend on the production planning and business strategies of enterprises in each link.

Silicon material: First of all, look at the silicon material link. After a long period of sharp decline, because the price has been lower than the industry's production cost, many silicon material companies plan to gradually reduce production or overhaul in the third quarter, and eliminate existing old production capacity. On the one hand, while old production capacity is being phased out, whether the new production capacity of leading companies will be implemented will also bring uncertainty to the market. And due to the high concentration of silicon material production capacity, the decisions of leading companies will dominate future price trends. We need to continue to wait and see the actual production of various companies in the third quarter. If the supply can be successfully reduced, China's silicon prices are expected to rebound slightly at the end of the third quarter.

Silicon wafers: Affected by the price drop and inventory accumulation in upstream silicon materials, silicon wafer prices will break through the industry production cost line in the first half of 2024 or have bottomed out. The main changes or potential benefits to the overall silicon wafer prices will come from the upstream silicon material link, as As mentioned earlier, the scheduled supply reduction in the silicon material segment will cause prices to rebound slightly at the end of the third quarter. Affected by upstream price increases, it is expected to drive upwards in silicon wafer prices.

Battery: As professional battery companies have successively completed the upgrade of production lines from PERC to TOPCon in the third quarter, since most of this part of the production capacity is mainly planned to produce 210RN, there are potential variables in the supply and demand relationship between specifications. The battery sector is subject to upstream and downstream pressures, and the specifics have to wait for changes in silicon wafer and module production schedules and terminal demand. On the other hand, with battery supply continuing to be in excess and inventories remaining at relatively high levels, it is difficult for various companies to After turning a loss into a profit in the short term, the price trend in the second half of the year has not yet improved.

Components: In Europe, the decline in traditional energy prices has restricted photovoltaic demand, causing local component prices to continue to fall. Considering that prices in all aspects of the supply chain have bottomed out, in the short term, due to continued weakness in terminal demand and lack of favorable policies, the market Demand is still not enough to absorb excess supply, and some companies use quotations lower than market prices to compete for orders, further limiting the recovery of module prices. Module prices in the second half of the year must be viewed conservatively.

The photovoltaic industry in 2024 will struggle to move forward amid difficulties, but the development of the industry is always full of twists and turns. Amidst the adjustments and changes in various links, it is expected that the photovoltaic industry can find a way to break through the difficulties, usher in new development opportunities, and contribute to global energy. Transformation contributes more.